Portfolio

Master portfolio tracking, optimization, and performance analysis on Veyra.

Understanding Your Portfolio

Portfolio Dashboard

Key Metrics:

┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Total Portfolio Value: $1,247.50   │
│  Total Invested: $1,000.00          │
│  Total P&L: +$247.50 (+24.8%)       │
│  Win Rate: 12/18 (66.7%)            │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘

Sections:

1. Active Positions: Ongoing markets

2. Resolved Markets: Completed trades

3. P&L History: Performance over time

4. Analytics: Detailed statistics

Active Positions

What You See:

Market: "Will Bitcoin reach $150K?"
├─ Outcome: YES
├─ Shares: 100
├─ Entry Price: $0.68
├─ Current Price: $0.75
├─ Cost Basis: $68.00
├─ Current Value: $75.00
├─ Unrealized P&L: +$7.00 (+10.3%)
└─ Days Held: 14

Actions Available:

• View market details

• Add to position (buy more)

• Reduce position (sell some)

• Exit position (sell all)

• Set price alerts

Resolved Positions

What You See:

Market: "Ethereum ETF Approval Q1?"
├─ Outcome: YES (Won ✅)
├─ Shares: 50
├─ Entry Price: $0.55
├─ Resolution: $1.00
├─ Cost: $27.50
├─ Payout: $50.00
├─ Realized P&L: +$22.50 (+81.8%)
└─ Hold Period: 47 days

Portfolio Metrics

Total Portfolio Value

Calculation:

TPV = Current Value of All Active Positions + Cash

Example:
Active Position 1: $75 (100 shares × $0.75)
Active Position 2: $120 (150 shares × $0.80)
Active Position 3: $55 (100 shares × $0.55)
Cash: $50

TPV = $75 + $120 + $55 + $50 = $300

Profit & Loss (P&L)

Unrealized P&L:

Unrealized P&L = Current Value - Cost Basis

Example:
Current Value: $75
Cost Basis: $68
Unrealized P&L: +$7

Realized P&L:

Realized P&L = Payout - Cost

Winning Trade:
Payout: $50
Cost: $27.50
Realized P&L: +$22.50

Losing Trade:
Payout: $0
Cost: $30
Realized P&L: -$30

Total P&L:

Total P&L = Unrealized + Realized

Example:
Unrealized: +$15 (from active positions)
Realized: +$50 (from closed positions)
Total P&L: +$65

Return on Investment (ROI)

Formula:

ROI% = (Total P&L / Total Invested) × 100

Example:
Total Invested: $1,000
Total P&L: +$250
ROI = ($250 / $1,000) × 100 = 25%

Time-Adjusted Returns:

Annualized ROI = (Total Return / Days) × 365

Example:
25% return in 90 days
Annualized = (0.25 / 90) × 365 = 101% per year

Win Rate

Calculation:

Win Rate = Winning Trades / Total Closed Trades

Example:
Won: 12 trades
Lost: 6 trades
Total: 18 trades

Win Rate = 12 / 18 = 66.7%

What's Good?

> 70%: Excellent
60-70%: Good
50-60%: Average  
< 50%: Needs improvement

Average Win/Loss

Average Win:

Avg Win = Total Winnings / Number of Wins

Example:
Total winnings: $250
Winning trades: 10
Avg Win: $25

Average Loss:

Avg Loss = Total Losses / Number of Losses

Example:
Total losses: $120
Losing trades: 5
Avg Loss: $24

Win/Loss Ratio:

W/L Ratio = Avg Win / Avg Loss

Example:
$25 / $24 = 1.04

> 1.5: Excellent
> 1.0: Good
< 1.0: Need bigger wins or smaller losses

Position Management

Adding to Positions

When to Average Down:

Scenario:
Bought 50 shares at $0.60 = $30
Price drops to $0.45
Your analysis: Still bullish

Buy 50 more at $0.45 = $22.50

New average:
Total shares: 100
Total cost: $52.50
Average cost: $0.525

Break-even: $0.525 (was $0.60)

When to Average Up:

Scenario:
Bought 50 shares at $0.40 = $20
Price rises to $0.55
Your analysis: Going higher

Buy 25 more at $0.55 = $13.75

New average:
Total shares: 75
Total cost: $33.75
Average cost: $0.45

More expensive but more conviction

Taking Profits

Partial Profit Taking:

Position: 100 shares at $0.50 = $50
Current price: $0.70
Unrealized profit: $20

Strategy: Take 50% profit
Sell 50 shares at $0.70 = $35

Result:
Cash: $35 (recovered $50 cost + $15 profit)
Remaining: 50 shares (cost basis $0)
"Free ride" on remaining shares!

Scaling Out:

Position: 100 shares

Plan:
Price hits $0.60: Sell 25% (25 shares)
Price hits $0.70: Sell 25% (25 shares)
Price hits $0.80: Sell 25% (25 shares)
Hold remaining: 25 shares to resolution

Benefits:
- Lock in profits progressively
- Reduce risk
- Keep upside exposure

Stop Loss Management

Hard Stop Loss:

Set automatic exit level:

Buy at: $0.60
Stop loss: $0.45 (-25%)

If price hits $0.45:
→ Auto-sell entire position
→ Limit loss to $15 per 100 shares

Trailing Stop Loss:

Moves with profit:

Buy at: $0.60
Trailing stop: 15%

Price rises to $0.80:
Stop loss moves to $0.68 (15% below $0.80)

Price rises to $0.90:
Stop loss moves to $0.765

Locks in profit as price rises!

Portfolio Optimization

Diversification

By Category:

Recommended allocation:

Politics: 25%
Crypto: 25%
Sports: 20%
Business: 20%
Other: 10%

Example $1,000 portfolio:
- Politics: $250 across 3-4 markets
- Crypto: $250 across 3-4 markets
- Sports: $200 across 2-3 markets
- Business: $200 across 2-3 markets
- Other: $100 across 1-2 markets

By Time Horizon:

Short-term (< 1 month): 30%
Medium-term (1-3 months): 40%
Long-term (> 3 months): 30%

Benefits:
- Regular turnover
- Steady cash flow
- Balanced risk

By Conviction:

High conviction: 40%
Medium conviction: 40%
Speculative: 20%

Example:
High: 2-3 positions @ 15-20% each
Medium: 4-5 positions @ 8-10% each
Spec: 5-8 positions @ 2-4% each

Correlation Management

Identify Correlations:

Positive correlation:
Market A: "Democrats win Presidency"
Market B: "Democrats win Senate"

→ Similar movements
→ Limited diversification
→ Reduce combined exposure

Negative correlation:
Market A: "USD strengthens"
Market B: "Gold price rises"

→ Opposite movements
→ Good diversification
→ Natural hedge

Correlation Matrix:

           Politics  Crypto  Sports  Business
Politics      1.0     0.1    -0.1      0.3
Crypto        0.1     1.0     0.0      0.2
Sports       -0.1     0.0     1.0      0.0
Business      0.3     0.2     0.0      1.0

Lower correlation = Better diversification

Rebalancing

When to Rebalance:

1. Position grows too large (>25%)
2. Category overweight (>35%)
3. Monthly review
4. After big wins/losses

Example:

Target allocation:
Politics: 25%, Crypto: 25%, Sports: 25%, Business: 25%

Current:
Politics: 40% (Bitcoin trade won big!)
Crypto: 20%
Sports: 20%
Business: 20%

Action:
- Take profits from Politics
- Reallocate to underfunded categories
- Restore 25/25/25/25 balance

Performance Analysis

Track by Category

Category Performance:

Politics:
├─ Trades: 15
├─ Win Rate: 73%
├─ Avg Win: $25
├─ Avg Loss: $18
├─ Total P&L: +$95
└─ ROI: 38%

Crypto:
├─ Trades: 20  
├─ Win Rate: 60%
├─ Avg Win: $30
├─ Avg Loss: $25
├─ Total P&L: +$60
└─ ROI: 24%

Insights:

• Politics: Strong performance, high win rate

• Crypto: Moderate performance, larger wins

Track by Strategy

Strategy Performance:

Buy & Hold:
├─ Trades: 8
├─ Avg Hold: 45 days
├─ Win Rate: 75%
├─ ROI: 32%
└─ Best for: High conviction trades

Swing Trading:
├─ Trades: 25
├─ Avg Hold: 7 days
├─ Win Rate: 56%
├─ ROI: 18%
└─ Best for: Volatile markets

Arbitrage:
├─ Trades: 12
├─ Avg Hold: 1 day
├─ Win Rate: 100%
├─ ROI: 3%
└─ Best for: Quick profits

Monthly Performance

Track Monthly Returns:

January:   +$45  (+4.5%)
February:  +$78  (+7.8%)
March:     -$32  (-3.2%)
April:     +$125 (+12.5%)
May:       +$55  (+5.5%)

Year-to-date: +$271 (+27.1%)
Avg monthly: +$54.20
Best month: April (+$125)
Worst month: March (-$32)

Drawdown Analysis

Maximum Drawdown:

Peak portfolio value: $1,200
Lowest subsequent value: $900
Drawdown: $300
Drawdown %: 25%

Time to recover: 45 days

Managing Drawdowns:

If drawdown > 15%:
→ Reduce position sizes
→ Focus on high-probability trades
→ Review strategy

If drawdown > 25%:
→ Stop trading temporarily
→ Analyze what went wrong
→ Rebuild confidence with small trades

Risk Management

Position Limits

Set Maximum Exposure:

Per position: Max 10% of portfolio
Per market: Max 15% of portfolio
Per category: Max 35% of portfolio

Example $1,000 portfolio:
Single position max: $100
Single market max: $150
Single category max: $350

Capital Preservation

Risk of Ruin:

Never risk more than you can afford to lose

Rule: Don't risk >2% per trade

Example:
Portfolio: $1,000
Max risk per trade: $20

If buying at $0.50:
Max position: 40 shares ($20 risk if total loss)

Reserve Cash:

Keep 10-20% in cash:

Example:
Total capital: $1,000
Invested: $800-900
Cash reserve: $100-200

Reasons:
- Grab opportunities
- Cover fees
- Reduce pressure

Advanced Portfolio Tools

Portfolio Tracking Spreadsheet

Essential Columns:

| Date | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Current | Cost | Value | P&L | ROI% |
|------|--------|---------|--------|-------|---------|------|-------|-----|------|

Example Entry:

| 11/01 | BTC $150K? | YES | 100 | $0.68 | $0.75 | $68 | $75 | +$7 | 10.3% |

Performance Dashboard

Key Metrics to Track:

┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│ Portfolio Stats                 │
├─────────────────────────────────┤
│ Total Trades: 45                │
│ Win Rate: 64%                   │
│ Avg Win: $28                    │
│ Avg Loss: $22                   │
│ W/L Ratio: 1.27                 │
│ Total P&L: +$247                │
│ ROI: 24.7%                      │
│ Sharpe Ratio: 1.8               │
│ Max Drawdown: -18%              │
└─────────────────────────────────┘

Automated Alerts

Set Up Notifications:

Price alerts:
→ When position rises 15%
→ When position falls 10%
→ When resolution approaching (7 days)

Market alerts:
→ New markets in favorite categories
→ High-volume markets
→ Trending markets

Portfolio alerts:
→ Total P&L milestone ($100 profit)
→ Drawdown threshold (-15%)
→ Concentration warning (position >20%)

Tax Considerations

Record Keeping

Track Every Trade:

Required information:
- Date of trade
- Market description
- Buy/sell price
- Number of shares
- Total cost
- Fees paid
- Resolution date
- Final payout

Export from Veyra:

Portfolio → Export → CSV

Includes:
- Complete trade history
- Realized gains/losses
- Unrealized positions
- Tax year summary

Tax-Loss Harvesting

Strategy:

Before year-end:
1. Review losing positions
2. Sell to realize losses
3. Offset gains with losses
4. Reduce tax liability

Example:
Realized gains: $500
Realized losses: $300
Net gain: $200
Taxable: $200 (not $500)

Portfolio Examples

Conservative Portfolio

Profile:

• Lower risk tolerance

• Steady returns

• High win rate focus

Allocation:

High probability trades: 60%
Medium probability: 30%
Speculative: 10%

Expected:
Win rate: 70%
Avg return: 15-20% annually
Drawdowns: <15%

Aggressive Portfolio

Profile:

• High risk tolerance

• Big win hunting

• Accept volatility

Allocation:

High conviction: 40%
Medium conviction: 30%
Speculative: 30%

Expected:
Win rate: 50-60%
Avg return: 50-100% annually
Drawdowns: 20-30%

Balanced Portfolio

Profile:

• Moderate risk

• Diversified approach

• Consistent growth

Allocation:

High probability: 40%
Medium probability: 40%
Speculative: 20%

Expected:
Win rate: 60-65%
Avg return: 25-35% annually
Drawdowns: 15-20%

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Continue Learning:

• Markets & Trading - Trading strategies

• Custom Outcomes - Multi-choice markets

• API Reference - Automated portfolio tracking